1. Who will be the fourth No. 1 seed?
Before Sunday’s conference tournament championship games tip-off, it would appear as though three teams — Houston, Kansas and Alabama — are already locked into No. 1 seeds. Predicting the fourth team to grace the top line gets a bit trickier, but there appear to be three primary candidates:
Purdue
Regardless of what happens in the Boilermakers’ Big Ten championship game against Penn State, Matt Painter’s team would seem to be the one most likely to grab the final top seed. Purdue is 10-4 in Quad 1 games, 8-1 in Quad 2 games, and has no real glaring losses on its resume.
UCLA
The Bruins could have helped their case with a win over Arizona in the Pac-12 title game Saturday night, but Dylan Andrews’ potential game-winner at the buzzer found nothing but iron. UCLA is 8-5 in Quad 1 opportunities and has zero losses in any non-Quad 1 contest. It will also be interesting to see if the Committee considers the injuries to Jaylen Clark, who is out for the tournament after suffering an Achilles injury last weekend, and big man Adem Bona, who hurt his shoulder in the Pac-12 semifinals against Oregon and did not play in the championship game.
Texas
The Longhorns would seem to be the longest shot of the three. That said, their 14 Quadrant 1 victories are the second most in the country, trailing only Kansas. They also just blasted the Jayhawks by 20 to win the Big 12 tournament title. What hurts UT is its eight total losses, which would be the most of any team ever to earn a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday.
2. Who will be the overall No. 1 seed?
The question of which team will be the first to hear its name called during Sunday’s Selection Show is much murkier than it has been in most years past. Alabama, Kansas and Houston all have valid cases, and the Crimson Tide and Cougars will both have opportunities to add to their cases in their respective title games on Sunday.
It’s not exactly news that the best team doesn’t always win this thing, but it is a bit jarring to see just how rarely the team most people believe to be the best going into the tournament actually winds up cutting down the nets.
Gonzaga has worn the pre-tournament crown each of the last two years, falling to Baylor in the 2021 title game and being upset by Arkansas in the Sweet 16 last March.
3. What does the Committee do with the ACC?
On paper the ACC has never been weaker. According to virtually every metric in existence, the league isn’t just the weakest of the so-called “Power 6” this season, it isn’t even in the top six, rating just behind the Mountain West at the moment.
Of course, the narrative around the conference this time 12 months ago was similar, and the league wound up producing three Elite Eight teams, a pair of Final Four squads, and the national runner-up in North Carolina.
Three ACC teams appear to be safely in the field of 68 — Duke, Virginia and Miami. Four others — NC State, Pittsburgh, Clemson and North Carolina are all squarely on the bubble (although the Tar Heels appear to be the least likely to hear their name called Sunday evening).
Do two ACC teams get sent to Dayton? Do only four teams make the field at all? Does Duke earn a top-four seed by virtue of their play over the last month?
What the Committee does with teams from a conference that has historically been terrific in this tournament but appears to be as down as it’s ever been this season will be fascinating.
4. Whose season got saved by Florida Atlantic?
The last of the so-called potential “bid thieves” bit the dust on Saturday when UAB was soundly defeated by a Florida Atlantic team that would have made the Big Dance regardless of how they fared in the Conference USA tournament.
So now we know that the last team in the field of 68 on Sunday will owe its spot to the Owls. Who needs to be sending Dusty May some flowers on Monday morning? Pitt? Rutgers? NC State? Arizona State? Vanderbilt?
Whoever it winds up being wouldn’t be heading to Dayton if not for FAU.
